Research

We use species’ evolutionary history to better understand and predict their present-day ecology. Our lab develops new statistical and computational tools to answer fundamental questions about the origins and future of biodiversity. We have three main research pillars (fundamental biodiversity science, supporting functioning landscapes, and human health), which all involve some element . We work with a number of conservation programs, such as the EDGE of Existence Program, to help safeguard natural ecosystems and the valuable services they provide for humanity.

Theme 1: Understanding biodiversity using innovative technologies

Developing methods that use species’ evolutionary history to understand present-day ecological processes has always been a major focus of our lab’s research (e.g., PGLMM methods), and we have pioneered the development of AI tools to achieve this. We developed the first automated birdsong detector, the first fully-automated phylogenetic pipeline, model shark behaviour using drones, automatically quantify morphometrics from images, develop new solutions to statistical problems that have plagued us since World War II and support citizen-science data release. We work hard to ensure that all aspects of our research have important policy implications, and to develop meaningful relationships of trust and co-operation with decision-makers. One example is our work with the Zoological Society of London’s EDGE of Existence program, which has trained >130 EDGE fellows who conserve species that are both endangered and evolutionary distinct in >40 countries. We have worked with the program since 2015, and Will is one of the co-leads of their ‘EDGE 2.0’ update. We have also worked with industry to develop biodiversity solutions to help define, measure, and forecast biodiversity impacts and advise on how to both preserve, but also make best use of, the biodiversity around us.

Theme 2: Using nature-based solutions across landscapes

We founded and maintain the ‘Ecological Fractal Network’ (the ‘EFN’), which has >40 collaborators recording data on every continent bar Antarctica, to study biodiversity responses to human activities across landscapes. We manage EFN sites at the Knepp Estate’s properties and the National Trust, to study how rewilding and afforestation affect landscapes. We are currently building what we believe to be the largest synthetic database of how biodiversity affects nature-based solutions and ecosystem services, with >230,000 measurements of how changes in biodiversity drive changes in critical services such as clean water, air, and food production. This work has already informed policy: please do read our briefing note to guide UK policy around biodiversity conservation and watch a keynote talk about it. I work with the US Forest Service’s `PIBO’ stream restoration program, which operates across the Pacific North-West of America with an annual budget of c. 1.5 million dollars, to help them manage their landscapes for biodiversity and human use. My work has also helped inform efforts to conserve and manage the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Theme 3: Linking biodiversity science with human health

During the COVID-19 pandemic we provided the UK government with forecasts of seasonal (e.g., winter) transmission dynamics, as well as insight into variant outbreaks. Our automated analysis pipeline provided what proved to be accurate predictions for the Christmas of 2020, and I was asked to speak at the World Health Organisation to outline our findings and predictions about variants. We are heavily involved with the recently-funded UK One Health Vector-Borne Disease Data Hub (VBD Hub), where our team will be responsible for synthesising and sharing data on emerging diseases, as well as providing automated tools to support policy-driven forecasts. This will compliment our ongoing, NERC-funded work on modelling the ecology and evolution of antifungal resistance in Aspergillus fumigatus, which has important implications for agriculture (to understand how pesticides induce resistance) and human disease (the fungus causes life-threatening infections).